New Space / Commercial Space Market - Forecast(2024 - 2030)

New Space/Commercial Space Market Overview

The Global New Space/Commercial Space market size is forecast to reach $23.6 billion by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 11.2% from 2021 to 2026. The market growth is attributed to technological advancements creating demand for more cost-effective space operations. Moreover, the expansion of private investment from new space investors has been also positively impacting the growth of new space/commercial space market. Rapid evolution of space sector overtime have eventually raised the transformation bar in space ecosystem, driving more space related exploration and research activities, which in turn also impact its market growth. In addition, emerging space economy is increasingly dependent on data with varied impacts on space technologies as well as markets along with military or strategic innovations around space and others is set to drive the market forward in the long run.

Report Coverage

The report: “New space market– Forecast (2020-2026)”, by IndustryARC covers an in-depth analysis of the following segments of the New Space market.

Key Takeaways

• Satellite IoT segment is analyzed to witness the fastest growth in the new space/commercial space market during 2021-2026, due to growing development of IoT based satellites.
• Military sector will grow with the highest CAGR during the forecast period 2021-2026, due to military investments on space exploration.
• North America had accounted for the largest share in 2020, due to growing demand for small satellites, rise of space observation mission and others.
  
  

Global New Space/Commercial Space Market Value Share, By Geography, 2020 (%)

New Space/Commercial Space Market Segment Analysis - By Solution Type

Satellite IOT segment is anticipated to grow with the highest CAGR of around 7.5% in the global new space/commercial space market during the forecast period 2021-2026. Satellite IoT facilitate surveillance of the environment, agriculture, maintenance of public utilities and many others relevant to remote sensing within a large area. Availability of low-cost and low-power global networking would also help in increasing the overall number of linked sensors, thus improving precision of data-based predictions and developments in a variety of global environmental, social, manufacturing, agricultural and logistical applications. A new wave of start-ups exploring recent developments in smaller satellite technology which offer low-cost, low-power access would challenge traditional satellite providers, aiding its market growth. IoT-focused satellites can be a great way to improve profitability, especially in relation to the rising broadband and satellite communications market. Some of the companies in the upstream satellite IoT market include OQ Technology, Astrocast, Kineis, Hiber, and many more. In 2019, Quilty Analytics had revealed about two dozen companies seeking to enter the satellite IoT market in the coming time, including both new entrants as well as incumbent players like Iridium Communications, Inmarsat, Globalstar and Orbcomm. In March 2020, Eutelsat announced about its plans of developing a nano satellite IoT constellation on the same side, set to be launched between 2021 and 2022. This will further help in serving emerging space economy advancements, driving its market growth in the long run.

New Space/Commercial Space Market Segment Analysis - By End Users

Military sector is analyzed to witness the fastest growth in the global new space/commercial space market with the highest CAGR of around 6.3% during 2021-2026. Rise of military security threats have been eventually raising the need for increasing satellite communication services as a part of ensuring intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance application areas. This further add up to the demand towards space crafts, launch missiles and many others in order to improve service and security standards within the military & defense sectors. Moreover, defense or military organizations support deployment of different types of satellites including communication satellites, surveillance satellites and many others towards tracking or monitoring of future security threats, thereby impacting the growth of new space/commercial space markets. In May 2021, the government of United Kingdom had revealed about a space program plan for its military towards investing on new technologies with a major focus on increasing space capabilities. Through this program, responsive launched small satellites in low earth orbit constellation will be adopted ensuring direct utility for the war fighters, causing faster response and resilience of the space networks. Such factors are further set to assist the growth of new space/commercial space market in the coming time.

New Space/Commercial Space Market Segment Analysis - By Geography

North America region had dominated the global new space/commercial space market in 2020 with a share of 33%, and is analyzed to witness a significant growth during the forecast period 2021-2026. Growing demand towards commercial communication or satellite imaging services, collaborative efforts from government and private sector towards space exploration projects have attributed towards the growth of new space/commercial space market in the region. Increasing demand for small satellites, rise of interplanetary space observation missions as well as investments on launch missiles, spacecraft and related space equipment to improve space ecosystem have also helped in boosting its market growth overtime. In addition, strong support for start-up firms from U.S government over the years, with SpaceX being the most prominent, through awarding with NASA launches have also helped in driving new space prospects in the region. Well-known venture capital firms including Sequoia, Khosla Ventures, RRE Ventures and others have invested in several promising companies such as Earth, Orbital Insight, and Spire in American New Space, as a part of uplifting the bar in exploring as well as designing accessible space technologies. In June 2021, the U.S Space Force announced about setting up an office in order to assess and secure commercial services ranging from traditional satellite communications to satellite imagery, further impacting the market growth of new space/commercial space.

New Space/Commercial Space Market Drivers

Evolution of small satellites

Emergence of smallsats, a satellite which weights as much as a few hundred pounds anywhere from one ounce, act as a major driver for the market growth of new space/commercial space. Usually, satellites weighing about 1 and 10 kg are made with off-the-shelf components and assembled in only a couple of days, thus lowering the entry barrier complexities, scheduling as well as cost viewpoint for commercial companies. This in turn help in pushing a new paradigm led by private corporations dedicated towards making space more available and inexpensive for non-governmental and military organizations. In November 2020, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) had revealed about its plans of gearing up the launch of small satellite launch vehicles utilizing satellites which weight less and have limited launch options. This small satellite evolution towards meeting the needs of emerging global small satellite launch services market, will further drive the growth of new space/commercial space market.

Growing investments from public as well as private firms

While private equity projects have captured most of the headlines in recent years, interest in the public sector have also increased significantly. In August 2019, Trump Administration had established a U.S. Space Command as a part of increasing U.S. military capabilities in space. Additionally, in May 2020, NASA announced about launching a manned flight to the International Space Station on a commercially developed rocket, making it the first time after U.K’s shuttle programme withdrawn in the year 2011. This further remarks a significant landmark in the collaboration between private enterprise and government in the area of space, thus aiding the market growth towards new space/commercial space.

New Space/Commercial Space Market Challenges

Regulatory barriers

Global regulatory barriers or conditions remain a significant challenge for businesses seeking to launch or have assets launched into space, irrespective of active technical progress and a momentum for privatization in the post-SpaceX age of developing space markets. Operating licences for LSPs (Launch Services Programs) remain a sluggish process and laws being not yet in effect to support new modes of service. The lengthy delays required to gain regulatory approval have been adversely impacting the development of space companies. The S2E (Service-to-Employee) section, especially for spacecraft without de-orbiting capability, may be further affected by new space debris regulations. This is poised to hamper the new space/commercial market growth in the long run.

New Space/Commercial Space Market Landscape

Partnerships and acquisitions along with product launches are the key strategies adopted by the players in the new space/commercial space market. The top 10 new space/commercial space companies include Blue Origin LLC, Masten Space Systems, Stratolaunch LLC, Virgin Galactic, XCOR Aerospace, Inc., Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX), Northrop Grumman Corporation, ORBCOMM Inc., Orbit International Corporation and Orbital Sciences Corporation (Orbital ATK) among others. 

Acquisitions/Technology Launches/Partnerships

• In July 2021, Masten Space Systems announced about the development of lunar navigation and positioning system as a part of its contract awarded by Air Force Research Laboratory.
  
• In January 2021, SpaceX announced about the launch of Falcon 9 rocket with 143 small satellites, in order to boost startup space companies alongside stressing of tracking networks of U.S military. 

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